Today’s topic is 3 things I believe about Bitcoin others think are crazy

Why do we care… because they make me and my students money and cost people money who don’t understand them …

Bubbles Are Good

  • “Only a fool would invest in this stuff!”
  • Bring capital in to fuel new technology and innovation
  • Chance to throw a lot of ideas against the wall and let free markets decide which stick
  • Opportunity for outsized returns, while they last
  • Not a reason to avoid, assuming you have risk capital to invest

Bitcoin Has a Place in a Retirement Portfolio

  • Risk capital only
  • uncorrelated asset class
    • outsized returns, for now
      • If I invest $50K … upside downside skew is compelling
      • Can’t fall in love with the merchandise … it’s like having a lion for a pet. Any moment, it could turn on you …

No Research, No News, No Peeking – Not Only Unnecessary, Unhelpful …

  • The market is like a voting machine–tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine–assessing the substance of a company. – Benjamin Graham
  • Driven completely by sentiment – no connection to fundamentals in the short run
  • Over the long run, this is why bubble will pop
  • 5 questions – what to invest in? And how much of the portfolio in each? Go to system page
    • Clearest use case
    • Deepest liquidity
    • Smart money
    • Potential for hedges and alternative investments
    • Nothing to do with white papers and underlying technology
    • Totally based on Sane Crypto philosophy of hope for the best but plan for the worst
  • Works view and first priceless inform answer to five questions

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